Halle (Saale) (dts) – Globalization has brought an increase in votes to the political fringes in Europe. This is the result of a study published on Tuesday by the Leibniz Institute for Economic Research Halle (IWH).
Accordingly, right-wing extremist and populist parties in particular were able to benefit from the so-called China shock in national elections. The sharp increase in imports of Chinese goods between 2000 and 2007 increased economic competition in Europe and was reflected in various ways in election results. In the short term, left-wing extremist parties benefited, which political scientists include, for example, the Left Party in Germany and Syriza in Greece. “Apparently the desire for social security played an important role in the short term,” the researchers suspect.
In the long term, however, populist and right-wing extremist parties were able to record increases in votes where import growth was strongest. Voters apparently lost trust in the welfare state and sought protection in protectionism. The study further shows: In regions that were hit hard by the import shock, right-wing parties already received high vote shares.
“International competition has brought more prosperity to many people and at the same time strengthened the political margins in Europe,” said Steffen Müller, head of the IWH structural change and productivity department, who wrote the study together with Annika Backes. “But globalization is not the main reason for the general shift to the right.” Because the effects of the import shock are moderate. On average, increased Chinese imports gave far-right parties in Europe a one percentage point increase in votes (equivalent to a 16 percent increase in votes cast). Populists gained up to 1,5 percentage points (equivalent to 12 percent).
Political scientists and sociologists identify primarily non-economic causes for the rise of right-wing parties, for example reservations about social changes that are perceived as too progressive. These other factors were not the subject of the study. It is therefore questionable to what extent state aid for the regions affected by economic structural change will help in the long term to keep populist and right-wing extremist parties in check, said economist Müller. “Politics should cushion economic hardship without slowing down structural change. Because the ongoing renewal of the economy ensures long-term prosperity.”
For the study, Müller and Backes evaluated election results from 15 European countries between 1997 and 2019.
