Malte Ian Lauterbach reports from Israel, where a Gaza ceasefire seems likely after months of stalled negotiations, Israeli lawmakers are (once again) pushing a controversial law, and the region is preparing for the incoming US administration.
Earlier this month, Israeli ministers advanced the so-called Feldstein Law. The law seeks to shield soldiers and defense establishment members from prosecution for sharing classified intelligence with the prime minister or defense minister without authorization.
The proposed legislation follows allegations against Eli Feldstein, a spokesman for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and an unnamed IDF reservist. Both individuals are accused of leaking stolen classified intelligence to foreign media, reportedly in an attempt to sway public opinion against a proposed hostage deal.
This is not the first time that the IDF has explicitly spoken out about draft laws and political processes – former Defense Minister Gallant also voiced similar criticism in the context of the planned judicial reforms last spring.
IDF spokesman Daniel Hagari criticized the bill, warning of its potential risks to the integrity of the military and intelligence framework. His remarks prompted backlash from government officials, who accused him of overstepping his authority by publicly opposing the legislation, arguing that such dissent undermines the unified front that is essential during times of conflict and decision-making.
Meanwhile, in Doha and Cairo, negotiations between Israel and Hamas, mediated by Egypt and Qatar, are nearing a potential ceasefire and hostage release deal. Key sticking points include Israel’s demand to free 11 male hostages in the first phase and control over the Philadelphi Corridor along the Gaza-Egypt border. Mediators report that 90% of issues have been resolved, but significant disagreements remain that could jeopardize the fragile talks.
Government sources in Cairo tell BSN that progress on the negotiations is slow, especially in regard to the many unsuccessful attempts at negotiating a ceasefire.
Despite over a year of negotiations since the last ceasefire, which was brokered on November 22, enabling a temporary, four-day ceasefire. During this period, later extended to more than a week, Hamas released 110 Israeli captives in exchange for 240 Palestinian detainees. Talks on extending the ceasefire collapsed because Hamas officials refused to release female soldiers held as hostages, leading to the Mossad team representing Israel in the negotiations withdrawing from the talks held in Qatar. Since then, the war continued.
In late January, talks in Paris led to a proposal for another 3-day ceasefire. Ultimately, Israel rejected this deal, citing “significant gaps.”
Since the failed talks in Paris, negotiations have repeatedly stalled, with each side accusing the other of undermining potential agreements. The February Cairo talks sought to address the core issues preventing a long-term ceasefire, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dismissed Hamas‘ prisoner release demands as „unrealistic,“ further widening the divide. The demands included releasing all prisoners held in Israeli prisons, including a large number of those jailed for being accused of perpetrating or planning terror attacks.
March brought another round of negotiations in Doha, where Hamas presented a new proposal. However, Israel’s immediate negative response, coupled with Netanyahu labeling Hamas‘ demands as „imaginary,“ signaled the lack of political will to achieve a breakthrough in peace talks. As ground offensives intensified in Gaza, international mediators struggled to maintain momentum in discussions.
In April, Cairo once again hosted negotiations, yielding reports of „progress“ without a concrete outcome. Mediators attempted to bridge the growing gaps between Hamas‘ insistence on a permanent ceasefire and Israel’s emphasis on maintaining military control in key areas. This cycle of unfulfilled optimism and subsequent breakdowns has characterized the talks since the conflict resumed.
By May, proposals backed by Egypt, Qatar, and the United States outlined a phased approach to achieve a lasting ceasefire, including mechanisms for the return of displaced Palestinians. Although Hamas accepted the plan, Netanyahu’s government rejected it after renewed rocket attacks on Israel’s south, escalating the military campaign in Gaza and accusing Hamas of exploiting negotiations for tactical advantages. Efforts by U.S. President Joe Biden to push for a comprehensive deal, outlined in late May, failed to gain Israeli support, despite backing from the UN Security Council.
By August, mediators continued to push for concessions from both sides, while Hamas remains steadfast in its demands, rooted in the July 2 framework. Israel’s insistence on adding new conditions, including extended military presence and additional inspections, has led to accusations of stalling the process.
Now, after months of deadlock, mediators from the U.S., Qatar, and Egypt report significant progress in negotiations. Hamas is signaling a willingness to adjust the Israeli troop withdrawal timeline, and Israeli officials are expressing optimism.
The proposed agreement would unfold in stages. In the initial six to eight weeks, Hamas is expected to release around 30 hostages, including dual U.S.-Israeli nationals, in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, some serving sentences for deadly attacks. Gaza would see a surge in humanitarian aid, including reopening the Rafah crossing with Egypt under revised arrangements.
Israeli forces would withdraw from key Palestinian areas, including large areas where IDF presence has been minimal in the last few months, but retain a presence along the Philadelphi corridor bordering Egypt. Talks on a permanent solution would follow under the leadership of the new US government, addressing complete troop withdrawal, remaining hostages, governance, and reconstruction plans.
The Israeli government remains relaxed regarding the incoming US administration. In November, I spoke to a former high-ranking member of the Israeli government (who wishes to remain unnamed). He told me, referring to the US government, „In the past… we’ve had good deals with them, they understand our interests, we understand their interests.“
Acknowledging the U.S. role in the Israeli arms industry, IDF representatives at the recent Defense Technology Summit in Tel Aviv emphasized the growing autonomy of Israel’s military-industrial complex, citing advancements in air defense systems, such as the Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow missile defense program, as prime examples. Initially developed with U.S. support, these systems are now seen as significant milestones in Israel’s capacity to innovate and respond independently to emerging threats. Furthermore, Israel is actively pursuing the expansion of exports for these systems, particularly to Western allies, highlighting its position as a leading defense exporter capable of meeting global security demands.
Asked about any potential deals with the neighbouring countries – akin to the Abraham Accords brought into existence by the Trump administration in the first 4 years – my source smiles.
“We keep our eyes open and our ears listening. I will not reveal more at this point, but we are working on good principles. Our allies know we are reliable partners when it comes to forming agreements with, they know who we are, and so do our enemies.”
Since early summer of 2023, rumours of talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel have been floating. Some allege that these provided one of the catalysts for the October 7 attacks by Hamas on southern Israel.
For the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank, the new administration is unlikely to bring much good news. After the first four years of Trump’s presidency highlighted clear frustration over communication issues between the Palestinian Authority and the U.S. Administration, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has made efforts to open a more cooperative dialogue. Sources told The Christian Science Monitor that his outreach was a significant move, with one senior PLO official stating, „Mr. Abbas‘ call ‚broke the ice and warmed relations‘ and ‚we might be in a new phase with President Trump,'“ says Ahmed Majdalani, a senior PLO official close to Mr. Abbas‘ inner circle. Despite these gestures, however, the path to peace remains fraught with challenges, particularly as Trump’s policies toward the region evolve.
Trump’s „Roadmap to Peace,“ which he proposed during the first 4 years in government, is being assessed as ambitious, with some critics daring to label them superfluous ideas for peace. These proposals include the creation of a land link connecting Gaza and the West Bank, such as a large tunnel, as well as major land swaps to secure the existence of the major settlements in the West Bank.
Many considered it doomed to fail when it was initially introduced, with critical voices stemming from both Israel and the Palestinian Authority, and little progress has been seen. In fact, neither side ever seriously considered the implementation.
With the situation now – years later – with Gaza in ruins and Hamas weakened and likely forced into a government with rivalling Fatah, the original peace deal is even more unlikely to be enacted.
Especially as the Israeli government is firmly opposed to allowing the establishment of a Palestinian state – while at the same time being unwilling to either serve as a governing authority or enable others to serve as this governing authority – it is questionable how the US administration is planning to address the Palestinian question.
